UT model says Texas could see sharp increase in COVID-19 deaths

Talk 1370 Newsroom
August 10, 2020 - 8:49 am
coronavirus graph data trend financial

UPDATE: After this story was initially published, UT researchers sent us the following statement. "There was an erroneous data point for deaths on July 27 that biased the projections, which has since been corrected." The statement also goes on to emphasize that deaths are a lagging indicator behind confirmed cases and hospitalizations. "If mortality data begins to decline, similar to recent declines in COVID-19 case counts and hospitalizations, then the model will naturally update to reflect the trend and its projected deaths will decrease."

The updated model, as of August 11 and now running through September 8, projects that 16,019 deaths will occur, with a range of 12,638 to 28,963. The current projections are available on UT's website.


AUSTIN (Talk1370.com) -- Texas could see a sharp increase in COVID-19 deaths in the next month, according to a University of Texas coronavirus model.

As of Sunday, 8,459 Texans had died across the state as a result of COVID-19. UT's model says that could grow to a minimum of 20,000 by August 30 - more than doubling in the next three weeks.

University of Texas COVID-19 Model

The UT model uses daily data on COVID-19 deaths, along with mobile phone GPS data that looks at how social distancing is working.

For just the Austin area, the model predicts a minimum of 554 deaths by August 30. As of Sunday, Austin Public Health had reported 298 deaths in Travis County.

University of Texas Coronavirus Model Deaths

More information on the UT model is available on their website.

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